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March 22, 2020

Green Line Weekly Mar 22, 2020

DIA Chart
Who is Selling Way Below the Green Line on FEAR?

 

03/22/2020:  Markets were down sharply for the week as the Indices are stretched Way Below the Green Lines on FEAR. The DOW 30 Index is currently 7500 points Below the Green Line. Since history tells us that Investments always return near their Green Lines, we Lowered the Sell Stop Losses on all positions to avoid large losses from FEAR Selling.

Eventually the FEAR will eventually subside, as human emotions are temporary. But the Coronavirus is causing the FEAR, so let’s do some Technical Analysis on the data provided by www.worldometers.info  (assuming the data is accurate).   

CHINA     New Cases have Peaked and down to 5353 cases remaining.

SOUTH KOREA     New Cases have Peaked and down to 5884 cases remaining.   

IRAN    New Cases have Peaked but still  12318 cases remaining.   

ITALY     New Cases are still rising with 46638 cases remaining.  99% of deaths had other health problems (Average age 79.5).

SPAIN    New Cases are still rising with 24722 cases remaining.     

USA     New Cases are still rising with new testing procedure. 37591 cases remaining (98% are mild).   Death rate is very low (388). Maybe peak in 1 – 2 weeks if we follow China & S. Korea.     

GERMANY    New Cases might have Peaked with 24356 cases remaining. Death rate is very low (92).

FRANCE    New Cases might have Peaked with 12310 cases remaining.     

UK    New Cases are still rising with 5309 cases remaining.   

CANADA    New Cases are still rising with 1351 cases remaining.   

 

Remember, there are about 30,000 deaths annually (82 per day) from the Flu, and 38,800 annually from car crashes.  The S&P 500 Index is 23% Below the Green Line from FEAR. The Markets have lost about $9 TRILLION in value since January.

What if we can follow the paths of China & South Korea, and the FEAR subsides soon? The Charts and Green Line are saying that the Covid 19 FEARS are extremely exaggerated.  

The ideal Investment Portfolio today would be to only own the Leaders that are still Above the Green Lines. Many of the Open Positions are holding up well, and could re-test the January Highs. The Plan is to unload weaker position that are currently Below the Green Lines on the next rally.

The Markets were Way Above the Green Lines (GREED) in January (take profits), but now the Leaders could be bottoming soon. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is down from 95 (Greed) in Jan. to 2 on last week (Fear). Emotions allow wise Investors who Buy on FEAR and Sell on GREED to make money. 

If you are worried about a Bear Market, there are 3 Inverse Funds that now meet the Green Line Rules (SH S&P 500 Inverse Fund,  RWM Inverse Small Cap Fund, and VXX Volatility Fund). All are currently in the Red Zones (probably too late to Buy for the Short Term). No trades on these until they return to their Green Zones (please be patient and WAIT).

For the week the Dow was down 17.08%, the S&P 500 was down 14.56%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 11.25%. The Long Term Trend for the Indices is mixed. 

The Inflation Index (CRB) was down 12.04% and is Below the Green Line, indicating Economic Weakness.

Bonds  were up 3.57% for the week and are Above the Green Line, indicating Economic Weakness.

The US DOLLAR was up 2.08% for the week, a New High. 

Crude Oil was down  28.68% for the week at $22.63 and GOLD was down 2.12%  at $1484.60.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

MONEY WAVE BUYS SOON:   

We are currently in 15 logged Open Positions, for the Short & Medium Term.  There are 7 Investments on the Short Term Watch List. 

Be patient and WAIT for Green Zone Buy Signals!

______________________________________________________________________________________________

LONG TERM INVESTMENTS  (concentrating more on the Short Term now)

Buy the Leading Investments that are down near the weekly Green Zones.     

 

ADBE      ADOBE SYSTEMS INC.    Buy when it Closes above $306.92 on High Volume.

AMD      ADVANCED MICRO    Buy when it Closes above $41.64 on High Volume.

NVDA     NVIDIA CORP.    Buy when it Closes above $226.10 on High Volume.

SHOP      SHOPIFY INC.      Buy when it Closes above $362.00 on High Volume.

 

PLUG     PLUG POWER INC.    Closed above $3.30 on Friday for a Longer Term Buy.   Target is $5.00.  EXIT if it is going to Close below $2.53.

______________________________________________________________________________________

NEW DIVIDEND GROWTH PORTFOLIO   (please check it out)

 

Click for  Portfolio (Open Positions)
Click for  Watch List
Click for  Closed Positions

 

New ETF Sector Rotation System

Dogs of the DOW System

Long Term Strategy for IRAs & 401k Plans:   

Alert! Market Risk is LOW (Green Zone). The probability of successful Short Term Trades is better, when the % of stocks above the 50-day avg. is below 20. 

Tell your Friends about the Green Line, and Help Animals

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Related Post

– Green Line Weekly Mar 15, 2020

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