03/22/2020: Markets were down sharply for the week as the Indices are stretched Way Below the Green Lines on FEAR. The DOW 30 Index is currently 7500 points Below the Green Line. Since history tells us that Investments always return near their Green Lines, we Lowered the Sell Stop Losses on all positions to avoid large losses from FEAR Selling.
Eventually the FEAR will eventually subside, as human emotions are temporary. But the Coronavirus is causing the FEAR, so let’s do some Technical Analysis on the data provided by www.worldometers.info (assuming the data is accurate).
CHINA New Cases have Peaked and down to 5353 cases remaining.
SOUTH KOREA New Cases have Peaked and down to 5884 cases remaining.
IRAN New Cases have Peaked but still 12318 cases remaining.
SPAIN New Cases are still rising with 24722 cases remaining.
USA New Cases are still rising with new testing procedure. 37591 cases remaining (98% are mild). Death rate is very low (388). Maybe peak in 1 – 2 weeks if we follow China & S. Korea.
GERMANY New Cases might have Peaked with 24356 cases remaining. Death rate is very low (92).
FRANCE New Cases might have Peaked with 12310 cases remaining.
UK New Cases are still rising with 5309 cases remaining.
CANADA New Cases are still rising with 1351 cases remaining.
Remember, there are about 30,000 deaths annually (82 per day) from the Flu, and 38,800 annually from car crashes. The S&P 500 Index is 23% Below the Green Line from FEAR. The Markets have lost about $9 TRILLION in value since January.
What if we can follow the paths of China & South Korea, and the FEAR subsides soon? The Charts and Green Line are saying that the Covid 19 FEARS are extremely exaggerated.
The ideal Investment Portfolio today would be to only own the Leaders that are still Above the Green Lines. Many of the Open Positions are holding up well, and could re-test the January Highs. The Plan is to unload weaker position that are currently Below the Green Lines on the next rally.
The Markets were Way Above the Green Lines (GREED) in January (take profits), but now the Leaders could be bottoming soon. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is down from 95 (Greed) in Jan. to 2 on last week (Fear). Emotions allow wise Investors who Buy on FEAR and Sell on GREED to make money.
If you are worried about a Bear Market, there are 3 Inverse Funds that now meet the Green Line Rules (SH S&P 500 Inverse Fund, RWM Inverse Small Cap Fund, and VXX Volatility Fund). All are currently in the Red Zones (probably too late to Buy for the Short Term). No trades on these until they return to their Green Zones (please be patient and WAIT).
For the week the Dow was down 17.08%, the S&P 500 was down 14.56%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 11.25%. The Long Term Trend for the Indices is mixed.
Bonds were up 3.57% for the week and are Above the Green Line, indicating Economic Weakness.
The US DOLLAR was up 2.08% for the week, a New High.
MONEY WAVE BUYS SOON:
Be patient and WAIT for Green Zone Buy Signals!
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS (concentrating more on the Short Term now)
Buy the Leading Investments that are down near the weekly Green Zones.
NEW DIVIDEND GROWTH PORTFOLIO (please check it out)
Alert! Market Risk is LOW (Green Zone). The probability of successful Short Term Trades is better, when the % of stocks above the 50-day avg. is below 20.
Tell your Friends about the Green Line, and Help Animals